The rate at which new technological
breakthroughs are being made in today's world is phenomenal. In this age
of computers, companies are finding it extremely difficult to keep up with
the new paradigms that technology can offer them. Keeping up with technology
is a challenge that managers have to face on a regular basis. Any investment
that is being made into information technology becomes redundant within
a year or two. And if you do not make the right investments at the right
time then the company is at a risk of being burnt by their competitors.
This is truly a double-edged sword that has to be handled with utmost
care. You want to make sure that the right amount of spending and research
is being allocated to newer technologies without going overboard. Most
managers fail to recognize this thin line and either stick to their already
working older technology or spend too many resources on implementing newer
technological infrastructure.
It is extremely important to recognize the various stages
thought which a new technology evolves. A better understanding empowers
you to make more timely and correct decisions on making technological
investments. Foster's "S Curve" (click here to view) measures
technological advancements with the effort applied.
Technological progress starts of slowly, then increases
very rapidly and then diminishes as the physical limits of the technology
are approached. Eventually the return on the efforts becomes extremely
small. A new technology whose underlying physical properties allow it
to overcome the physical limit of the old technology must be used. When
a technology is relatively new a lot of effort goes in to its advancement.
Managers must be very careful no to jump into the bandwagon at this stage.
They will end up spending a lot of money and resources without achieving
the expected results. Then comes the consolidation time where everyone
one should board the train to achieve maximum results.
A perfect example would be supercomputers. For years they
were designed using single-processor architectures, until their ability
to compute started approaching a physical limit. Multiprocessor architectures
such as massively parallel processors give rise to a new S curve, as shown
here. Computer makers should have been able to foresee
the end of single processor architecture by looking at the diminishing
returns on efforts put into improving single-processor designs.
Management today, has to be able to:
- Correctly predict the end of an existing technology and the arrival
of a technological discontinuity. This can be done by having resources
allocated to new development projects to test out newer products and
breakthroughs.
- Not ignore new technological advancements just because current systems
are running smoothly and easily sustainable.
- Spend some resources in training and educating their personnel so
they are up to date with the newest tools.
- And finally, develop an aggregate plan which encompasses technology
used in existing products and development of new products.
Published in 2002